Vegas expects these players to beat their ADP

Value Picks To Know For Your Draft

No Expert Fantasy Sports | Powered by Dynatyze | August 17, 2026
POWERED BY DYNATYZE
No Expert Fantasy Sports
featuring @JoeOrrico
WEEK OF AUGUST 17, 2026 • POWERED BY DYNATYZE.COM
 Joe's Take 
"Vegas sportsbook lines project these players HIGHER than ADP…"
 
Running Back
Derrick HenryRB6
Josh JacobsRB8
Wide Receiver
Rashee RiceWR7
Malik NabersWR12
DeVonta SmithWR13
Tight End
Kyle PittsTE5
George KittleTE6
All values in drafts. QBs broken out below.
— @JoeOrrico
View the full thread →
 Vegas Lines • 3 QBs Above ADP 
QB
2
Drake Maye
QB • New England Patriots
The books have him as a top-two fantasy quarterback and the draft room still hasn’t repriced last year’s leap. An MVP runner-up who just added A.J. Brown to the huddle should not be the third or fourth arm off the board.
QB
3
Jalen Hurts
QB • Philadelphia Eagles
Losing A.J. Brown spooked drafters. It did not spook Vegas. The number is carried by rushing touchdown equity, and that has never depended on who lines up outside — the discount here is somebody else’s fear.
QB
7
Brock Purdy
QB • San Francisco 49ers
Led the league in clutch conversion last season and walks into a reloaded offense. Sportsbooks project a comfortable QB1 finish while his ADP is still priced like a bye-week fill-in. Cheapest name on this list by a mile.
 4 Sleeper Targets • By ADP 
WR
22.4
Nico Collins
WR • Houston Texans • ADP 22.4
Target hog in a Stroud offense with no real competition for looks. A proven alpha going in the late second is the cleanest value on the board.
WR
10.4
CeeDee Lamb
WR • Dallas Cowboys • ADP 10.4
Slid out of the top tier on a down year that was mostly quarterback noise. The volume never left — you're buying WR1 usage at a WR5 price.
QB
41.5
Lamar Jackson
QB • Baltimore Ravens • ADP 41.5
A rushing floor no other quarterback can match, and Baltimore's pace keeps the passing volume honest. In superflex he's a cheat code at this cost.
RB
29.4
Kyren Williams
RB • Los Angeles Rams • ADP 29.4
Still the only back McVay trusts inside the five. Committee risk is already priced in at this ADP — the touchdown equity is not.
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 Data Edge • HypeGap™ Movers 
 NFL 
+18%
HypeGap™
Garrett Wilson
SELL ↓ Overhyped
Name-brand hype has outrun the target quality behind it. The efficiency still hasn't shown up. Sell into the preseason buzz while the market is paying retail.
−16%
HypeGap™
Zay Flowers
BUY ↑ Underhyped
Quietly the most-targeted Raven with real room to grow in the red zone. The market is still pricing last season's usage, not this one's. Buy before it corrects.
 NBA 
+17%
HypeGap™
Giannis Antetokounmpo
SELL ↓ Overhyped
Elite production, but the price now embeds zero risk on minutes management or a franchise pivot. Cash out to the manager who'll pay the premium.
+11%
HypeGap™
Jalen Williams
SELL ↓ Mild Overhang
A legitimate second option on a title team, but the ceiling case assumes usage Oklahoma City's depth may never hand him. Moderate sell, not a panic.
 MLB 
+10%
HypeGap™
Paul Skenes
SELL ↓ Mild Overhang
The stuff is real. The innings cap and Pittsburgh's run support are the two things the current price refuses to acknowledge. Moderate sell.
+27%
HypeGap™
Jackson Chourio
SELL ↓ Overhyped
The widest gap on the board. Prospect shine plus a hot stretch has pushed the cost past what the profile currently supports. Trade the narrative.
−15%
HypeGap™
Yordan Alvarez
BUY ↑ Underhyped
Injury noise has knocked the price well below the bat. Healthy, he's still a top-five hitter. Buy the discount before the market corrects it.
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